Conference Breakdown: Big 12

More than any other conference, the Big 12 has felt like a true wild west. Any team could be favored to win and it wouldn't be all that surprising. Baylor, TCU, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and even Kansas would not surprise me if they made a run to the conference title game next year. Let's dig a little deeper.

For 2023, the teams ended up finishing like this:

TCU

Kansas State

Texas

Texas Tech

Oklahoma State

Baylor

Oklahoma

Kansas

West Virginia

Iowa State

At one point, Kansas reached 5-0, hosted Gameday, and looked to be last year's Cinderella. While it may be tempting to label them as such, they were not a disappointment. They were supposed to win 2-3 games and reached a bowl game for the first time in a while (2008). Kansas State ended up winning the conference crown after they beat TCU in their rematch. TCU made the national championship game though, so I hardly doubt that they will complain. Also worth note is that Texas and Texas Tech both seem to be on the rise. Look for both teams to compete for the conference crown. We also have to welcome in the new teams: BYU, Cincinatti, UCF and Houston! The teams break down like this:

WVU

Neal Brown needs a big year. His job most likely depends on it. The good news is that he has 2 legit options at quarterback, with both Garrett Greene and Nico Marchiol returning. Greene helped to beat Oklahoma last year for the first time since joining the Big 12, while Marchiol has limited reps but was a touted 4 star recruit. This issue is that the Mountaineers bring in a recruiting class outside of the top 40, so they may be hurting on talent around the QB. The team did seem to find a groove with Greene at QB, so look for them to get on a roll if they can start 2-1 or better.

Oklahoma

This year is the last guaranteed year that we see Bedlam, and it sucks. Expansion isn't always good. As for 2023, the Sooners bring in a top 5 recruiting class and a top 10 transfer class. Dillon Gabriel returns and they bring in a 5 star QB in Jackson Arnold. I look for Oklahoma to improve by a good margin. Last year was obviously a down year, and I do not believe that Oklahoma finishes worse than 4th this year. I think there's a good chance that they show up to the Cotton Bowl undefeated.

Oklahoma State

The Cowboys finished 5th last year, and will have a new quarterback this year as Spencer Sanders has moved on. Transfer Alan Bowman comes in, and there were two freshmen who also saw playing time last year. Mike Gundy has also been one of my favorite coaches as he never seems to let the expectations and outside noise affect him. He makes the most of his players, and the light start to the schedule gives him time to get everything ready for conference play.

Texas

Could this be the year for Sark? He had his Longhorns a game away from the Big 12 title game, with all of their losses being within one possession. Texas has the most talented team in the conference last year and they signed the #1 class in the conference this year to add to that. Quinn Ewers is returning for what should be a good year for Texas. I will be the first one to say that Texas should be in the conference title game, and they could pull one off against Bama.

TCU

The good news: it was a historic year for the Horned Frogs. The bad: 2023 will most likely be a step back for TCU. Starting quarterback will be up for grabs, and Chandler Morris should be the one who starts. TCU brings in the 3rd best recruiting class, but they had the 3rd most talented roster last year and still made the championship game. I like the story of TCU being new to the dance, but I don't think they will get that far in 2023.

Kansas State

The conference champs fought hard all year, and when they had a chance to redeem themselves, they took it. Will Howard returns and will probably be the quarterback this year, as Kansas State tries to get back to the conference title game. The Wildcats certainly have a good opportunity to return to the title game, especially considering the return at quarterback. The schedule also includes 2 of the newcomers, so I see a path for them to get to the title game.

Texas Tech

Texas Tech had a good year last year, beating Texas, Oklahoma and Ole Miss. The team did show what they can be capable of, now they just need to do it consistently. Tyler Shough returns at quarterback, which is a big piece of their team for next season. I think the Red Raiders should be considered an under-the-radar team to consider for the conference title.

Baylor

Baylor finished 6th last year after winning the conference the year before, which is certainly not up to the standard of Dave Aranda. Sawyer Robertson comes over from Mississippi State to battle Blake Shapen for the quarterback spot next year. The Bears should be better in 2023, with a good transfer class and a quarterback battle that should produce a quality starter. The bad news is that they have to travel to TCU and Kansas State, which could be a tough challenge to overcome. If they win both, Baylor could be at the top of the standings.

Kansas

The Jayhawks bring back the 2nd most production in all of college football from a team that accomplished a lot. They have a quarterback who is electrifying and a team that is hungry to prove themselves. Beating West Virginia on the road last year provided a spark that allowed the team to reach new heights. This year, no one will be surprised by Kansas, and that will certainly be a challenge. I think this team has the opportunity to make a bowl game again, but they certainly need to upgrade the recruiting a little bit to get to a higher level.

Iowa State

Matt Campbell finished at the bottom of the conference, and the Cyclones may be in danger of ending towards the bottom again last year. The season starts of brutally with Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and TCU to begin Big 12 play. However, if Hunter Dekkers can put together a solid campaign and Iowa State plays to their strengths like they have, I could also see this team hanging around the top of the conference.

BYU

BYU actually had a game last year against Baylor, in which they won in overtime. They have had many games against the power 5 for years and they do seem to hold their own when they do. They played Notre Dame within one possession, which was impressive. Of all of the newcomers, I think that BYU does the best. They have a good program and the distance for home field advantage makes them a tough out.

Houston

Houston finished 5th in the American and that isn't the best thing for the Cougars. The level of competition will be much increased this year, and that means that Houston will have to do better to compete in the Big 12. I am interested to see Dana Holgerson go against his former team in WVU, but Houston will certainly have to get better quickly.

Cincinatti

When the news of Cincinnati being added to the Big 12 was announced, I thought the Bearcats would be the biggest benefactor. They had a great coach, they made the playoff and this past year they played Arkansas very close. However, with Luke Fickell gone I don't think that Cincinnati will maintain the same level of success that they have been having. They bring in the 80th best recruiting class, but QB Ben Bryant is returning. I think that Cincinatti makes a bowl but I don't see them doing much more.

UCF

UCF did sign the best class in the American for 2023, and they made the title game for the American last year as well. However, the level of competition will be higher this year, with road games at Oklahoma and Kansas State. I think that UCF can get to 6-7 wins, but how much more should we expect from a team that is transitioning into a power 5 conference.